Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 232.585780 282.378604 343.831592 426.536442 536.954460 6.823136e+02 8.934389e+02
2025-08-03 175.155874 232.358472 312.043457 435.437034 630.169540 9.421678e+02 1.519561e+03
2025-08-10 141.583617 199.450613 287.151127 437.701028 708.497557 1.220626e+03 2.409188e+03
2025-08-17 117.706801 173.133370 262.491443 428.435513 759.910499 1.482198e+03 3.555172e+03
2025-08-24 100.483229 152.852852 241.509852 417.051460 800.319274 1.748631e+03 5.100473e+03
2025-08-31 87.440803 136.689154 223.474703 404.843502 832.763205 2.022346e+03 7.201022e+03
2025-09-07 83.147379 134.477640 229.639637 442.960888 1001.745831 2.836404e+03 1.398217e+04
2025-09-14 75.951868 125.786230 221.540005 447.360769 1087.235347 3.486914e+03 2.324300e+04
2025-09-21 70.970941 120.353731 218.730102 463.211187 1216.546127 4.500131e+03 4.469108e+04
2025-09-28 65.182975 112.512113 209.402139 460.091284 1285.697605 5.368609e+03 7.920630e+04
2025-10-05 63.586990 112.639480 217.188979 504.686918 1555.444854 7.977101e+03 2.739129e+05
2025-10-12 61.436209 111.299512 221.396837 541.163597 1829.429103 1.160098e+04 1.408517e+06
2025-10-19 58.702562 108.579782 222.406342 570.760181 2117.141239 1.696367e+04 2.700203e+07
2025-10-26 55.546764 104.546920 219.540281 587.726118 2370.631390 2.396033e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 52.167578 99.586745 213.447745 592.005688 2567.856020 3.235108e+04 NaN
2025-11-09 48.455100 93.441204 203.255214 578.534850 2650.491771 3.994908e+04 NaN
2025-11-16 45.033919 87.598251 192.980916 561.810559 2702.176768 4.830000e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 41.940418 82.200314 183.123515 543.893761 2733.908382 5.761122e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 41.598027 83.212120 191.116271 600.080456 3424.625922 1.237052e+05 NaN
2025-12-07 39.697016 80.274249 187.408330 606.605065 3721.920557 1.930830e+05 NaN
2025-12-14 38.414790 78.708878 187.468424 630.172133 4244.194616 3.798825e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 36.503094 75.390629 181.776159 625.525458 4471.810399 6.039751e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 36.387689 76.576100 190.086791 692.306817 5754.311866 3.123321e+06 NaN